China’s emergence from the shambles of the Maoist era to either the largest or the second largest economy on earth according to how you count is certainly the most important global development since the end of the cold war (Natalie Nougayrède, Opinion, 26 June).
But the perception of global dominance she detects in the findings of the latest Pew Research Center report begs a number of questions.
First, it is extremely doubtful if any one power can achieve dominance in today’s multipolar world. (Indeed, the supposed dominance of the United States after 1945 missed out some pretty big areas, starting with the Soviet Union and China).
For all the high-rolling expansionism of the Xi Jinping administration as it shells out aid pledges running into hundreds of billions of dollars, it is questionable whether Beijing wants to achieve dominance. Studies of the fall of the USSR by Chinese thinktanks point to the dangers of getting into a contest for supremacy with the US.
Second, from the slowing economy to the pollution crisis, China faces multiple challenges at home which take priority over foreign affairs in the leadership’s agenda.
The anti-corruption campaign has shown the scale of graft, while welfare provision remains patchy and traditional Confucian and social values have been fragmented by materialism and the application of the alternative system of legalism.
Innovation, the key to economic progress, has not been a feature of China’s growth, and productivity increases are narrowing.
In Beijing’s backyard, the US enjoys military superiority. China is hemmed in by the chain of islands off its coast and the People’s Republic has just one treaty ally – North Korea.
As for soft power, people still demonstrate for western democracy, but nobody takes to the streets to advocate the installation of a Chinese-style regime and there are far more signs of westernisation on the mainland than of Chinese influence in everyday life outside east Asia.
So , whatever people may tell the pollsters, it looks as though we will have to wait some time yet for a Chinese-led world.
Jonathan Fenby
Author, Will China Dominate the 21st Century?
But the perception of global dominance she detects in the findings of the latest Pew Research Center report begs a number of questions.
First, it is extremely doubtful if any one power can achieve dominance in today’s multipolar world. (Indeed, the supposed dominance of the United States after 1945 missed out some pretty big areas, starting with the Soviet Union and China).
For all the high-rolling expansionism of the Xi Jinping administration as it shells out aid pledges running into hundreds of billions of dollars, it is questionable whether Beijing wants to achieve dominance. Studies of the fall of the USSR by Chinese thinktanks point to the dangers of getting into a contest for supremacy with the US.
Second, from the slowing economy to the pollution crisis, China faces multiple challenges at home which take priority over foreign affairs in the leadership’s agenda.
The anti-corruption campaign has shown the scale of graft, while welfare provision remains patchy and traditional Confucian and social values have been fragmented by materialism and the application of the alternative system of legalism.
In Beijing’s backyard, the US enjoys military superiority. China is hemmed in by the chain of islands off its coast and the People’s Republic has just one treaty ally – North Korea.
As for soft power, people still demonstrate for western democracy, but nobody takes to the streets to advocate the installation of a Chinese-style regime and there are far more signs of westernisation on the mainland than of Chinese influence in everyday life outside east Asia.
So , whatever people may tell the pollsters, it looks as though we will have to wait some time yet for a Chinese-led world.
Jonathan Fenby
Author, Will China Dominate the 21st Century?
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