The possibility of a nuclear-armed ISIS may not be as far-off as many experts suggest, a Harvard researcher has warned.
In a recent report for Project on Managing the Atom from Harvard’s Belfer Center, Matthew Bunn explains how the threat of nuclear terrorism is rising as extremist groups continue to evolve.
While there has not been any concrete indication that ISIS is pursuing nuclear materials, the researcher says that the actions and rhetoric of the group suggest its need for such powerful weapons.
THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM
The report details the threat of three types of nuclear or radiological terrorism.
*Detonation of an actual nuclear bomb
*Sabotage of a nuclear facility
*Use of a ‘dirty bomb’ to spread radioactive material
Each of these comes at a different level of risk, and the authors focus for the most part on the potential danger from the use of an actual nuclear bomb, as these results would be ‘most catastrophic.’
Nuclear sites may see tightened security, but there are also numerous other locations where radioactive materials can be acquired, and are less protected.
Hospitals and industrial sites, for instance, also contain such materials in a more easily accessible location,’ the researcher explains.
In recent years, there have been numerous occasions of suspicious events relating to nuclear facilities in Belgium, Defense One points out.
While it would be difficult to ISIS or other terror groups to obtain the knowledge of security features and access nuclear materials, Bunn explains that the evidence of such intentions are growing.
The report precedes the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, which will take place between March 31 and April 1.
According to the authors, the summit will help to determine the feasibility of terrorist groups getting their hands on nuclear materials.
The threats come from the possibility of three types of nuclear or radiological terrorism, the authors write: detonation of an actual nuclear bomb, sabotage of a nuclear facility, or use of a ‘dirty bomb’ to spread radioactive material.
Each of these comes at a different level of risk, and the authors focus for the most part on the potential danger from the use of an actual nuclear bomb, as these results would be ‘most catastrophic.’
Still, the other types of threats do not come without consequences.
‘The radiation from a dirty bomb, by contrast, might not kill anyone—at least in the near term—but could impose billions of dollars in economic disruption and cleanup costs,’ the authors write.
‘The effects of sabotage of a nuclear facility would depend heavily on the specific nature of the attack, but would likely range between the other two types of attack in severity.
'The difficulty of achieving a successful sabotage is also intermediate between the other two.’
In order to reduce the chance of these attacks, the report explains that effective and sustainable nuclear security will be necessary.
But, while progress has been made in recent years, the researchers say the work is not done.
Nuclear sites may see tightened security, but there are also numerous other locations where radioactive materials can be acquired, and are less protected.
Hospitals and industrial sites, for instance, also contain such materials in a more easily accessible location, the researcher explains.
‘Making a crude nuclear bomb would not be easy, but is potentially within the capabilities of a technically sophisticated terrorist group, as numerous government studies have confirmed,’ the authors write.
Though the probability of such an event may not be high as of yet, the potential consequences would be catastrophic, the researchers say, and this should act as a motivator for improved nuclear security measures worldwide.
In a recent report for Project on Managing the Atom from Harvard’s Belfer Center, Matthew Bunn explains how the threat of nuclear terrorism is rising as extremist groups continue to evolve.
While there has not been any concrete indication that ISIS is pursuing nuclear materials, the researcher says that the actions and rhetoric of the group suggest its need for such powerful weapons.
THREAT OF NUCLEAR TERRORISM
The report details the threat of three types of nuclear or radiological terrorism.
*Detonation of an actual nuclear bomb
*Sabotage of a nuclear facility
*Use of a ‘dirty bomb’ to spread radioactive material
Each of these comes at a different level of risk, and the authors focus for the most part on the potential danger from the use of an actual nuclear bomb, as these results would be ‘most catastrophic.’
Nuclear sites may see tightened security, but there are also numerous other locations where radioactive materials can be acquired, and are less protected.
Hospitals and industrial sites, for instance, also contain such materials in a more easily accessible location,’ the researcher explains.
In recent years, there have been numerous occasions of suspicious events relating to nuclear facilities in Belgium, Defense One points out.
While it would be difficult to ISIS or other terror groups to obtain the knowledge of security features and access nuclear materials, Bunn explains that the evidence of such intentions are growing.
The report precedes the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, which will take place between March 31 and April 1.
According to the authors, the summit will help to determine the feasibility of terrorist groups getting their hands on nuclear materials.
The threats come from the possibility of three types of nuclear or radiological terrorism, the authors write: detonation of an actual nuclear bomb, sabotage of a nuclear facility, or use of a ‘dirty bomb’ to spread radioactive material.
Each of these comes at a different level of risk, and the authors focus for the most part on the potential danger from the use of an actual nuclear bomb, as these results would be ‘most catastrophic.’
Still, the other types of threats do not come without consequences.
‘The radiation from a dirty bomb, by contrast, might not kill anyone—at least in the near term—but could impose billions of dollars in economic disruption and cleanup costs,’ the authors write.
‘The effects of sabotage of a nuclear facility would depend heavily on the specific nature of the attack, but would likely range between the other two types of attack in severity.
'The difficulty of achieving a successful sabotage is also intermediate between the other two.’
In order to reduce the chance of these attacks, the report explains that effective and sustainable nuclear security will be necessary.
But, while progress has been made in recent years, the researchers say the work is not done.
Nuclear sites may see tightened security, but there are also numerous other locations where radioactive materials can be acquired, and are less protected.
Hospitals and industrial sites, for instance, also contain such materials in a more easily accessible location, the researcher explains.
‘Making a crude nuclear bomb would not be easy, but is potentially within the capabilities of a technically sophisticated terrorist group, as numerous government studies have confirmed,’ the authors write.
Though the probability of such an event may not be high as of yet, the potential consequences would be catastrophic, the researchers say, and this should act as a motivator for improved nuclear security measures worldwide.
No comments:
Post a Comment