Will There Be A Saffron Surge Or Return Of Mamata Didi in WB?

As the West Bengal votes for 30 seats In Phase 1 of its eight-phase polling for 294- assembly seats, die is already cast in favour of saffron party. By all counts of "Godi media", BJP is projected to form the government in Bengal with a comfortable majority.

According to the India-TV People Pulse opinion poll, BJP is projected to win at least 183 seats while Mamata Didi will win around 95 seats and Left alliance just 16 seats. Peoples Pulse Opinion Poll was conducted in December 2020. Since than much water has flown down the Damodar- the river once known as sorrow Sorrow of Bengal because of its ravaging floods. But after 2003 it has been tamed and is now seen no more as such. It is still the most polluted river in India.

However, Times survey predicts ruling Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, retaining power amid a robust challenge from the BJP. As per the survey, the TMC is likely ito win 160 seats. BJP s likely to push its tally from 3 seats in the 2016 polls to 112 in 2021 polls. The Left Front-Congress alliance is likely to be at a poor third spot with 22 seats.

Going by the poll of polls, There is a neck-to-neck race between TMC and BJP with most polls predicting TMC slight ahead. Chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, has been persistently alleging that the “outsiders” or “bohiragato” – people who come/came to stay in Bengal from other states — are to be blamed for the current crisis of West Bengal. She calls most of BJP leaders including PM Modi and Amit Shah as “bohi ragato” or outsiders.

But will the WB voters buy her emotional regional outburst as all national leaders including Indira Gandhi, AB Vajpayee, Dr, Manmohan Singh and others happen to be bohiragato”? The results of 2019 Lok Sabha polls have strongly rejected Mamata's 'bohiragato” appeal BJP won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal getting 40 percent of the vote share. The party managed to take a lead in 121 assembly seats. Trinamool was ahead in 164. BJP also increased its Lok Sabha tally in the state from 2 in 2014 to 18 in 2019.

The phenomenal saffron surge in West Bengal. once citadel of left-wing surge- underscores the failure of secular parties and alienation of voters from left and centrist politics.

BJP has greatly succeeded in polarizing Hindu votes whereas secular votes are deeply divided. Not only left-Congress alliance but AIMIM’s Owaisi and influential Islamic leader Abbas Siddiqui alliance is likely to divide Muslim voters. Muslims constitute 30 percent of voters in West Bengal.

The Muslim vote has always been a crucial factor in deciding victory in West Bengal. One of the main reasons for the victory of Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress over the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front in the 2011 Assembly election was that Muslim voters had largely turned away from the Left after the publication of the Sachar Committee Report. The report had shown that Muslims in West Bengal were worse off than their counterparts in other States. After coming to power in 2011, the Trinamool has enjoyed the support of the Muslim population, which has seen it through successive elections. But in this election, it will be a different ball game.

So all odds are against Mamata Didi in this assembly elections. Only a strong wave in her favour can prevent saffron surge. She has tried to garner voters sympathy over attack on her and Didi canvassing in a wheelchair bu right now, there looks no strong wave in her favour. But like a wounded tigress, she can bounce back.

(Chander Sharma)