Is India On The Verge Of Facing The Third Coronaivrus Wave ?

While India has barely emerged successfully from  the horrors of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic, the danger of the third wave  is raising its ugly head after a blatant breach of Covid protocol everywhere as lockdown restrictions are being  eased in  most of the states

Expressing its deep concern, the Delhi High Court on Friday warned that breach of Covid protocol will only hasten the third wave, after taking note of the violations in markers in the capital following the massive easing of restrictions this week.The court asked authorities to take strict measures against violators and sensitize shopkeepers.

Shops, malls and restaurants in Delhi reopened on Monday, Weekly markets were also allowed but only with 50 per cent vendors and only one market per day in each municipal zone.  Other states have also eased the restrictions.

The Delta variant (Corona second Indian variant) was first reported from Maharashtra last year. Now, the Maharashtra has sounded alert for the third wave. 

Experts say Every successful mutation helps a virus or any other organism thrive better. This is principally why Delta Plus variant has become a worry for an anticipated third wave, However, it can be prevented or mitigated at least on the basis of lessons learned from the past two waves of Covid-19 pandemic.

The Delta variant was previously known as the “Indian variant”,  was first found in India. It's one of three sub-lineages of the Indian variant, and is also known as B.1.617.2.It has now spread to more than 80 countries and it continues to mutate as it spreads across the globe, World Health Organization officials warned on June 16. 

Now, Delta Plus (third one) variant has been detected even though it has not been classified as a variant of concern . Delta Plus variant was first detected in Europe in March this year. It has been isolated in some samples in India and around 10 other countries. Delta Plus is a new version of its mutant variant Delta.

The variant now makes up 10% of all new cases in the United States, up from 6% last week. Studies have shown the variant is even more transmissible than other variants. WHO officials said some reports have found that it also causes more severe symptoms. 

Happily, on Thursday morning, India reported lowest daily Covid-19 cases in over 70 days. India was in a similar situation around of the turn of the year.

We must remember how Covid-19 pandemic returned back with the biggest global surge in India, after the restrictions were lifted. People were seen crowding indoors and outdoors while the authorities too looked lax in enforcing Covid-19 protocol. India, can unlearn this lesson on its own peril.

It is believed that staggered opening of marketplaces and offices can stop overcrowding of places. Both public authorities and private managements should opt for staggered timings and sites, including continued adoption of work-from-home mode to prevent the congregation of workforce in one place.

This is more important for offices requiring more indoor staff than those depending on field workers. Studies have shown that spread of corona is greater indoors as wind and sun rays help faster disintegration of corona outdoors

Immediate lockdowns needed to be imposed in places where the positivity rate nears or crosses 5 per cent-mark. The WHO treats this as the danger-line in the spread of  the pandemic.

Pandemics or epidemics are known to fizzle out when a population attains herd immunity, meaning the virus has no further scope of growth. India has, so far,  roughly provided vaccination coverage to its 16 per cent of eligible (above 18) population. In contrast, the UK has provided 59 per cent coverage, the US 51 per cent, Israel 62 per cent and even Brazil 22 per cent.

The immediate target of India is to provide 40 per cent vaccination coverage against Covid-19. This means India might have to vaccinate around 1 crore people every day to meet the target by August-end. In June, the daily doses of vaccination have stayed in 30-35 lakh zone. Vaccine production and supply situation is expected to improve from July.

The Corona vaccines that are currently in development or have been approved are expected to provide at least some protection against new virus variants because these vaccines elicit a broad immune response involving a range of antibodies and cells, according to WHO. Therefore, changes or mutations in the virus should not make vaccines completely ineffective. In the event that any of these vaccines prove to be less effective against one or more variants, it will be possible to change the composition of the vaccines to protect against these variants.

(Chander Sharma With Inputs From Net)