Scientists Warn Omicron To Lead More Hospitalizations, Kill Up To 75,000 People

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Omicron will cause nearly 2,500 daily hospitalisations this winter even under Plan B measures, Government scientists claimed today as they warned tougher measures will be needed to deal with the variant.

Modelling by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests the strain could cause anywhere from between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months and more hospitalisations in January than were seen last year. 

The researchers — who also sit on the Spi-M SAGE modelling subgroup that advises No10 — said restrictions similar to stage two of the roadmap out of lockdown, which include a ban on indoor socialising at pubs and restaurants, may be needed to stop the NHS becoming overwhelmed. 

They suggested the measures should be brought in as Boxing Day to stem the tide of admissions and deaths and added that upping the booster rollout to the Government's 500,000 per day target will do little to reduce the toll. 

But the data was based on assuming Omicron causes as much severe illness as Delta, which has been called into question after preliminary data from South Africa suggested the strain could be causing less hospitalisation.

It comes after Professor Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious disease at the University of Edinburgh, said the variant is spreading so quickly in Britain everyone will come into contact with it 'unless you're a hermit'. 

Professor Riley warned 'a lot of people' could still end up in hospital even if the strain proves to cause milder symptoms than Delta. 

Hospitals have already had to start shutting wards after detecting cases, with Raigmore Hospital in Inverness forced to close one of its units after a spike in infections.

Meanwhile, new rules on care homes have 'almost' returned residents to the same conditions they were in a year ago, according to care leaders. Michael Gove yesterday announced care home resident will be banned from seeing more than three named visitors this winter in order to protect them from the vaccine-evading variant. 

While Covid booster jabs have been shown to be effective against Omicron, there are concerns that the millions of people who are yet to get their third inoculation could be unprotected against symptoms of the virus without it.  Officials stress two doses should still offer high protection against severe illness but even a small drop in that could trigger a surge in hopsitalisations.

The variant already makes up 30 per cent of new Covid cases in London, according to confidential data given to ministers. (Daily Mail)

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